Posts Tagged 'Joel Kotkin'

Demografi & Homo Islamicus

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The Myth Of Soaring Muslim Fertility Rates

It is considered common wisdom among Western analysts that Muslim countries are plagued with large families and ever-swelling masses of young people are a threat to stability. Only problem is all the hard evidence to the contrary.

By Anna Lietti – March 31st, 2012

This story starts with a myth. It is the myth that the Muslim world is uniformly dedicated to making many (too many) babies, and that this has gone on for centuries.

Logo Worldcrunch

This mythology also has its very own Bible:  “Factors Affecting Muslim Natality,” by Dudley Kirk, an American professor of Population Studies. Published in 1965, this study embodied, scientifically speaking, the notion of a demography unique to Muslim countries that won’t transition to a family model with two children, as it did in the Western world.

Kirk’s theories have influenced this debate in a lasting way. Thirty years later, they were still inspiring Samuel Huntington in his work “The Clash of Civilizations,” where he presents his theory of an eternal conflict between the West and Islam. The demographic threat plays a central role in his thesis.

Mere HER i Worldcrunch.

Demography Is Destiny in Syria

By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi & Oskar Svadkovsky on February 6, 2012

The “peripheralism” and Malthusian underpinnings of an unexpected uprising.

Among the second wave of Arab Spring uprisings that followed Tunisia, Syria was the most spectacular “out of the blue” that suddenly arose in the face of the media and analytic community. Just days before Deraa exploded with protests last March, some analysts were still scrutinizing Syria’s circumstances and declaring the country to be immune from the Arab Spring. Nor did reporters who visited the country spot signs of a brewing storm.

In fact, throughout the Arab Spring, the media and experts repeatedly fell into the same trap of confusing the capital city with the whole country. On the eve of the Islamist landslide in Egypt’s elections various polls and informed individuals were putting the popularity of radical Salafis at between 5% and 10%. The Salafis have indeed won about 10% of the vote… but only in Cairo. Nationwide they took almost 30%, beating even those unrepentant pessimists who were betting on a Muslim Brotherhood spring. In some provinces they grabbed all of 50%.

Mere HER i The American Spectator. The Middle East Forum her. AINA her.

America’s Demographic Future

by Joel Kotkin and Erica Ozuna – January 28, 2012

Perhaps nothing has more defined America and its promise than immigration. In the future, immigration and the consequent development of what Walt Whitman (1855: iv) called “a race of races” will remain one of the country’s greatest assets in the decades to come.

At a time when anti-immigrant fervor has been building, a number of states—including Arizona, Georgia, and Alabama—have enacted draconian laws aimed at apprehending undocumented immigrants. Those laws are widely seen even among legal immigrants and long-term residents as hostile to immigrants. Indeed, newcomers are already leaving those states. This Latino exodus has been happening in once-thriving neighborhoods in Gwinnett and Cobb counties in Georgia—as shown in business closures, arrest statistics, and declining church attendance—caused both by the economy and the increased immigration enforcement (Simmons 2010). Nationwide, there has been a declining number of unauthorized immigrants living in the United States, a decrease of 1 million from 2007 (Hoefer, Rytina, and Baker 2011).

Mere HER i New Geography eller her i The Cato Journal.

Muslim demographics: Pull and push factors

by Nicolai Sennels on April 1, 2012

In Denmark, 89.1 percent of Muslims vote on the Left. In France the number is 95 percent. And certainly this tendency is the same all over the West. Thus Muslim immigration is in fact the importation of votes for the Left. Therefore it is not surprising that Leftist parties are the ones that work hardest to open our borders to more non-Western immigration. They burden their own countries with weak immigrants from a less civilized culture in order to secure their own reelection. They invite people to our part of the world who have many children and are only able to manage few kinds of jobs, and who will therefore always vote for the socialists.

While our states and municipalities spend billions of Euros, Kroners and Pounds on immigrants, the rest of us have to pay more and more in taxes.

Mere HER hos Jihad Watch.

Re-Engineering Humans: An Old Solution to Climate Change

March 29, 2012 – by Ed Driscoll

It’s no coincidence that global warming took off as an issue just as the Soviet Union fell; it’s top-down centralized government’s last best hope of controlling the masses. And like other forms of totalitarian worldviews, it doubles as a religion as well, as Czech President Vaclav Klaus noted late last year:

“I’m convinced that after years of studying the phenomenon, global warming is not the real issue of temperature,” said Klaus, an economist by training. “That is the issue of a new ideology or a new religion. A religion of climate change or a religion of global warming. This is a religion which tells us that the people are responsible for the current, very small increase in temperatures. And they should be punished.”

Mere HER hos PJ Media.

Andre kilder: Time Magazine,

Video: Joel Kotkin om fremtidens byer

Fra TVO den 15. oktober 2010 – The Agenda med Steve Paikin:

Joel Kotkin: Challenging Urban Legends

“The Next Hundred Million” Author Joel Kotkin, and why he believes our future lies not in large urban centres, but in smaller, more human scale communities like suburbs.

De artikler, der nævnes i videoen, er indsat i en postering nedenfor denne. Tidligere blogget om samme emne:

Fremtidens byer

Her er de to artikler, der bliver sat op overfor hinanden i videoen ovenfor. Ingen af dem rammer plet. For fremtiden vil vi alle forsøge at undgå islamiserede byer. Det er allerede begyndt:

Beyond City Limits

The age of nations is over. The new urban age has begun.

By Parag Khanna – Sept./Oct. 2010

Logo Foreign Policy MagazineThe 21st century will not be dominated by America or China, Brazil or India, but by the city. In an age that appears increasingly unmanageable, cities rather than states are becoming the islands of governance on which the future world order will be built. This new world is not — and will not be — one global village, so much as a network of different ones.

Time, technology, and population growth have massively accelerated the advent of this new urbanized era. Already, more than half the world lives in cities, and the percentage is growing rapidly. But just 100 cities account for 30 percent of the world’s economy, and almost all its innovation. Many are world capitals that have evolved and adapted through centuries of dominance: London, New York, Paris. New York City’s economy alone is larger than 46 of sub-Saharan Africa’s economies combined. Hong Kong receives more tourists annually than all of India. These cities are the engines of globalization, and their enduring vibrancy lies in money, knowledge, and stability. They are today’s true Global Cities.

Mere HER hos Foreign Policy Magazine.

Urban Legends

Why suburbs, not cities, are the answer.

By Joel Kotkin – Sept./Oct. 2010

Logo Foreign Policy MagazineThe human world is fast becoming an urban world — and according to many, the faster that happens and the bigger the cities get, the better off we all will be. The old suburban model, with families enjoying their own space in detached houses, is increasingly behind us; we’re heading toward heavier reliance on public transit, greater density, and far less personal space. Global cities, even colossal ones like Mumbai and Mexico City, represent our cosmopolitan future, we’re now told; they will be nerve centers of international commerce and technological innovation just like the great metropolises of the past — only with the Internet and smart phones.

According to Columbia University’s Saskia Sassen, megacities will inevitably occupy what Vladimir Lenin called the “commanding heights” of the global economy, though instead of making things they’ll apparently be specializing in high-end “producer services” — advertising, law, accounting, and so forth — for worldwide clients. Other scholars, such as Harvard University’s Edward Glaeser, envision universities helping to power the new “skilled city,” where high wages and social amenities attract enough talent to enable even higher-cost urban meccas to compete.

Mere HER i Foreign Policy Magazine.

Joel Kotkin om atomisering af nationer

Kotkins klyngeopdeling herunder kan i  høj grad diskuteres. Mange af landegrupperne har intet til fælles indbyrdes  og vil aldrig søge sammen som i Kotkins model. Men at vi kommer til at leve i en art gated communities fordelt efter religion, er ret sandsynligt, – undertiden i store byer. Multikultur afvises jo af flertallet i alle vestlige lande:

The New World Order

By Joel Kotkin

Tribal ties—race, ethnicity, and religion—are becoming more important than borders.

Logo Newsweek

For centuries we have used maps to delineate borders that have been defined by politics. But it may be time to chuck many of our notions about how humanity organizes itself. Across the world a resurgence of tribal ties is creating more complex global alliances. Where once diplomacy defined borders, now history, race, ethnicity, religion, and culture are dividing humanity into dynamic new groupings.

Broad concepts—green, socialist, or market-capitalist ideology—may animate cosmopolitan elites, but they generally do not motivate most people. Instead, the “tribe” is valued far more than any universal ideology. As the great Arab historian Ibn Khaldun observed: “Only Tribes held together by a group feeling can survive in a desert.”

Mere HER hos Newsweek eller her hos newgeography. Desuden link her til Joel Kotkins blog.


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